Ryan Larson, assistant professor of criminology, is the lead author of a new research article, "The Causal Packaging Effects of Punishment for First-Time Felony Holders" in Social Science Research.
Larson uses court administrative data from Minnesota to estimate the causal effects of punishment combinations on recidivism. Findings indicate that the effects of punishment on later crime are weak overall, but the confluence of long probation and heavy monetary sanctions can elevate crime.
Abstract:
The United States has experienced a marked rise across multiple forms of punishment including incarceration, probation, and monetary sanctions during the era of mass incarceration. However, studies examining the impacts of punishment on recidivism have a) primarily focused on the effects of incarceration and b) treated each axis of punishment as a separate, isolated factor in contrast to how they are experienced as a package of punishment. This study leverages a natural experiment using the quasi-random assignment of judges within Minnesota Judicial Districts and estimates the causal impacts of incarceration, probation, and monetary sanctions on recidivism while also examining how each punishment mode may condition the impact of the other. Findings indicate that the relationship between punishment and subsequent crime is weak overall, but the packaging of probation and LFOs together is criminogenic. Further, the criminogenic effects of probation are diminished among cases that carry lengthier incarceration sentences. These findings suggest that the impacts of punishment should be studied as they are experienced – as a mutually-constitutive package of confinement, surveillance, and financial costs.