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Barring a recognition of Dillon’s comeback, this race boils down to Clooney and Giamatti.

In addition to his nomination as an actor, Clooney wrote and directed Good Night, and Good Luck, which also garnered him nominations in both categories. I’m starting to suspect, though, that Giamatti’s snub last year may play into the Academy’s mind a bit more for his neglected performance in Sideways, and they’ll honor Clooney somewhere else.

As for who should win, there’s really no comparison to Gyllenhaal, whose sweet and desperate role as Jack Twist was the heart of Brokeback Mountain. And, if I were an Oscar voter, I would have found some room for Andy Serkis, who brought the beast to life in King Kong.

If the best supporting actor is the most competitive, best supporting actress is the race with the highest quality performances.

Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener), Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain), Amy Adams (Junebug), Frances McDormand (North Country), and Catherine Keener (Capote) all shine as, respectively, a crusading activist, a neglected wife, a pregnant optimist, a miner, and Harper Lee.

This category is most prone to surprises at the Oscars, but Rachel Weisz’s wins at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards show that she’s on a roll. If someone pulls off an upset, look to the Brokeback Mountain juggernaut taking Michelle Williams into its award winning tear.

Personally, I wouldn’t be mad if Weisz, Adams, or Williams took home this trophy, as they were all three in my personal favorite five of the year. However, it is pitiable that the Academy didn’t also recognize Maria Bello as the gutsy wife in A History of Violence.

This year’s batch of Oscar nominees for Best Director include an auteur (Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain), a first-timer (Bennett Miller for Capote), an author (Crash screenwriter Paul Haggis), an actor (George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck), and a legend (Steven Spielberg for Munich).

While the awards have shown a grand tendency to shower trophies on actors in the director category (Clint Eastwood and Mel Gibson as examples), I think that George Clooney will be making way for Ang Lee, whose Brokeback Mountain was an explosively subtle film that has deservedly been called the best of the year, and he’d have my vote.
The greatest pity about this category is that Woody Allen, among the most Oscar-decorated directors in Hollywood who made a masterful comeback this year with the vibrant Match Point, won’t be welcomed by the Academy.

That’s all for now, folks. Next week, we’ll explore the cowboy showdown between Heath Ledger (Brokeback) and Joaquin Phoenix (Cash) for Best Actor, as well as the best actress, best picture.