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From owner-indonesia-p@indopubs.com Mon Mar 2 14:20:19 1998
Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 12:19:11 -0700 (MST)
Message-Id: <199803021919.MAA12583@indopubs.com>
To: apakabar@clark.net
From: indonesia-p@indopubs.com
Subject: [INDONESIA-P] IPS - Suharto to Get New Mandate, But Old Ways Remain
Sender: owner-indonesia-p@indopubs.com
*** 26-Feb-98 ***
Title: INDONESIA: Suharto to Get New Mandate, But Old Ways Remain
By Kafil Yamin
JAKARTA, Feb 26 (IPS) - Every five years a huge assembly of 1,000
Indonesians gathers to elect the president and vice president, but
it has never been a much-awaited proceeding because its choices
are made beforehand.
The same predictable routine unfolds this year, when the
People's Consultative Assembly, known by its Bahasa acronym MPR,
meets from Mar 1-11 to endorse a seventh, five-year term for
President Suharto.
The assembly, half of whose members were appointed by the
president, is also expected to name Suharto's ally, Research and
Technology Minister Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, as vice president.
While no surprises are expected at the session, its endorsement
of the Suharto-Habibie leadership comes under scrutiny at a time
when Indonesia is under pressure to revive its flailing economy
and stave off unrest that may undermine the government's hold on
power.
Suharto's choice of Habibie, whose ties with the president go
back to the fifties, signals his preference for someone who can
think big and whom he can rely on as he gets older. The 76-year-
old Suharto, who has ruled Indonesia for 32 years, is only its
second president after its founding father Sukarno.
At the same time, Habibie's supporters want the German-trained
official to be not just a 'reserve wheel' but a co-pilot in
leading the country. Suharto is expected to give him a bigger role
than he has ever given to past vice presidents.
Opinion is divided over Habibie's elevation to the vice
presidency, which makes him a potential successor to Suharto.
Some Indonesians like his grand plans, such as the project he
leads to make Indonesia's own airplanes, because they show that a
developing country can make headway in technology too. But critics
find them a waste of money.
Many foreign observers and western-educated Indonesians doubt
Habibie's expertise in economics in these times of crisis.
''Habibie is deemed a sectarian and anti-free market figure,''
said economist Anwar Nasution. ''It is only normal that market
sentiment is negative.''
Habibie's believers, like House member A M Saefuddin, said:
''His intelligence is above common Indonesians and he is capable
of dealing with the situation if given a chance''.
Critics say that far from injecting stability, Suharto's choice
of Habibie did little to signal renewed capability to reform
Indonesia's politics and business.
One analyst, who declined to be identified, said economic
problems are rooted in public distrust of the government and the
system -- and the Suharto-Habibie team promises little change in
this respect.
''No matter how capable he (Habibie) is, public trust has
evaporated. And the key to healing our misery is the restoration
of public trust,'' she explained.
Analyst Adam Schwarz, author of the book 'A Nation in Waiting:
Indonesia in the 1990s', said in a published commentary that the
country's ills go beyond just economics, which is why the reform
programme with the International Monetary Fund has not worked.
''In the murky free-fall of the Indonesian economy, one lesson
is becoming increasingly clear: A crisis that is both political
and economic in nature does not lend itself to solution by
economic remedies alone,'' he explained.
Many critics say it is high time for political reform in
Indonesia, ranging from more room for dissent to an end to
business policies that favour the powerful and well-connected.
But observers say things may not look the same way inside the
country, though there have been rallies against a seventh term for
Suharto. Suharto remains a shrewd leader, they add, judging by how
he ensured support for Habibie from the powerful military.
Habibie got the ticket to be Indonesia's No 2 leader after Gen
Feisal Tanjung, then armed forces chief, announced the military's
decision to nominate him for vice president. Before that, four
House factions expressed support for him as well.
There had been talk that choosing Habibie would not please the
military, so analysts note that Suharto changed the military line-
up and filled strategic posts with officers loyal to him.
He named Gen Wiranto, his former aide and army chief of staff,
to replace Tanjung as armed forces chief. His son-in-law, Maj Gen
Prabowo Subianto was made commander of the Kostrad.
Analysts see Habibie's choice as an attempt to strengthen the
government's standing with the Muslim community in increasingly
uncertain times. ''The Suharto-Habibie duo is a win-win situation
for both Suharto and Muslim community,'' said Rishwanda Imawan, a
lecturer in political science at the Gadjah Mada University.
''It is a victory for Suharto, who has groomed Habibie. It is
also a victory for the Muslims, from whom the government needs
political support,'' he added.
Still, some say the prospect of Habibie helping lead Indonesia
has sent jitters through the Indonesian Chinese community, who
tend to view him as anti-Chinese.
Habibie's associates say otherwise. ''They know that in Habibie's
head there is no such thing as race. What is really there is
justice. Is it just if 4 percent of population controls 70 percent
of the economy?'' said retired Lt Gen Achmad Tirtoudiro.
''Many of the criticisms have proven to be baseless, '' said
former home minister Rudini, who like many Indonesians uses only
one name. ''Now we should give him a chance to take up the
challenge.''
Meantime, the MPR is all set to confer new five-year terms on
Suharto and Habibie. Under Indonesia's system, 500 of its members
are appointed by the president. Most of those named have been
Suharto's allies, relatives like sons, daughters and cousins, and
wives of ministers and bodyguards of his sons.
The political process leaves little room for opposition voices
like Megawati Sukarnoputri, Sukarno's daughter, influential Muslim
leader Amien Rais and Emil Salim, a former government official who
is batting for ''clean govenrment''.
Salim says some MPR members may yet follow their consciences.
But with 50,000 security personnel on full alert here and tens of
thousands more in other cities, the voices of Megawati and Rais
may only be heard in the streets of the country's small towns.
(END/IPS/AP-IP/KY/JS/98)